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Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits
The Quarterly Journal of Economics
This paper estimates that the release of an additional ton of carbon dioxide today will cause mean damages to global mortality risk valued at $36.6 under a high emissions scenario and $17.1 under a moderate scenario, using a 2% discount rate that is justified by US Treasury rates over the last two decades. It is a core input to the Climate Impact Lab's Data-driven Spatial Climate Impact Model (DSCIM).

Published November 1, 2022

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Civil Conflicts Are Associated With The Global Climate
Nature
Examines the dominant interannual mode of the modern climate, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and shows that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. This is the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate.

Published September 12, 2011

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