A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation.

The impacts of heat waves in a warming climate depend not only on changing temperatures but also on changing humidity. This study investigates the long‐term evolution of summertime humidity and daily maximum temperature near four U.S. cities, New York City, Chicago, Phoenix, and New Orleans, under a high‐emissions pathway. The results suggest that, despite a modest decrease in median relative humidity, heat stress--a measure of both humidity and temperature--will increase faster than temperature projections alone would indicate.